Ethereum at a Fork in the Road: Two Scenarios Dictating ETH’s Next Move
By Marcus Chen | Technical Analysis | January 15, 2025
Look, Ethereum’s doing something interesting right now.
And by interesting, I mean it’s sitting at one of those spots where the next move could go violently in either direction. $2,828 to $2,925. That’s your battleground.
[INSERT IMAGE 1 HERE]Here’s what’s happening—and why most people are missing it.
The Bearish Case (Yeah, It’s Still Alive)
We’ve been in this corrective channel for weeks now. The Elliott Wave count? Still pointing down.
Fifth wave of a larger correction. Target: $2,250.
That’s a 61.8% retracement. Significant.
[INSERT IMAGE 2 HERE]The prevailing trend shows this sustained corrective decline. It’s been methodical. Wave after wave pushing lower within this descending channel. And technically? It’s still valid.
If this count is right, we’re setting up for one more leg down. That fifth wave would take us to $2,250—the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from the lows.
But here’s where it gets interesting…
The Bullish Signal Nobody’s Talking About
From the December 18th low, we got a clean five-wave move up. Then a three-wave correction down.
A-B-C structure.
Textbook bullish signal.
[INSERT IMAGE 3 HERE]This is what makes Elliott Wave both powerful and frustrating. You can have two valid counts pointing in opposite directions. The market gets to choose which one plays out.
The five-wave impulse from December 18th suggests the correction might be over. If that’s the case, we’re looking at a C-wave rally—the final leg of a three-wave corrective bounce within the larger downtrend.
So which is it? Bulls or bears?
The Decision Area: $2,828-$2,925
The answer is in that zone. I call it the Decision Area.
Price is coiled there right now.
[INSERT IMAGE 4 HERE]This isn’t just random support. It’s where multiple technical factors converge:
- The ABC correction found support here
- Key Fibonacci retracement levels align in this zone
- Previous resistance turned support
- Volume profile shows significant trading activity
Hold above $2,828? Bulls are in control.
Break below? Bears win.
Simple as that.
Path 1: The C-Wave Rally
If support holds? We’re looking at $3,140 to $3,314.
That’s the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension zone from the five-wave impulse.
[INSERT IMAGE 5 HERE]The trigger is straightforward: hold above $2,828 and start rallying with conviction. We need to see buyers step in with volume. Reclaim $2,925, then push through $3,000.
Intermediate levels to watch on the way up:
- $3,028 – First resistance, previous local high
- $3,105 – Minor Fibonacci level
- $3,185 – Psychological resistance
- $3,208 – 127.2% extension
- $3,247 – 141.4% extension
The target zone of $3,140-$3,314 represents where C-waves typically terminate. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s where the math points.
Invalidation? A sustained close below $2,828. If we break that level with conviction, this bullish count is dead.
Path 2: The Breakdown
Break below $2,828? Bulls failed.
Simple as that.
Next stops: $2,626, then $2,250.
[INSERT IMAGE 7 HERE]This would confirm the dominant downtrend is still in control. The corrective channel wins. That fifth wave lower becomes the active scenario.
$2,626 is the first support level—a previous consolidation zone that could provide temporary relief. But if bears are really in control, it’s just a pit stop on the way to $2,250.
The 61.8% retracement at $2,250 is the big one. That’s where the entire corrective structure would likely find support and potentially reverse. But getting there means another 20%+ drop from current levels.
[INSERT IMAGE 8 HERE]The trigger: Sustained trading below $2,828 with increasing volume. We’d want to see follow-through—not just a quick wick below, but actual acceptance of lower prices.
So What Now?
The market has to choose. And it has to choose soon.
[INSERT IMAGE 9 HERE]That $2,828-$2,925 pivot? That’s where the battle gets decided.
I’m watching volume, momentum, and how price reacts at these key levels. A decisive move in either direction will tell us which scenario is playing out.
You should be too.
📈 If You’re Trading This Setup
Bullish Scenario Trade Plan:
- Entry: Confirmed hold above $2,925 with bullish momentum
- Target 1: $3,140 (100% extension)
- Target 2: $3,314 (161.8% extension)
- Stop Loss: Below $2,828
- Position Size: Risk no more than 2-3% of portfolio
- Invalidation: Close below $2,828 = exit immediately
Bearish Scenario Trade Plan:
- Entry: Confirmed break below $2,828 with volume
- Target 1: $2,626
- Target 2: $2,250
- Stop Loss: Above $2,925
- Position Size: Risk no more than 2-3% of portfolio
- Invalidation: Reclaim of $2,925 = exit short
⚠️ Risk Reality Check
Crypto is volatile. This analysis could be completely wrong. Markets don’t care about our wave counts or Fibonacci levels. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Use stop losses. Don’t leverage beyond your risk tolerance. What’s true today might not be tomorrow. The Decision Area could turn into a prolonged consolidation, invalidating both scenarios. Trade at your own risk.
Watch the Full Video Analysis
I break down the charts in detail, including additional timeframes and confluence factors:
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if Ethereum breaks below $2,828?
A break below $2,828 would invalidate the short-term bullish setup and signal that bears are still in control. It would likely trigger a move toward $2,626 as the next support level, with the ultimate downside target at $2,250 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). If you’re holding long positions, $2,828 is your critical stop loss level.
What’s the bullish target for Ethereum if support holds?
If the $2,828-$2,925 support zone holds, the C-wave rally could push ETH toward the $3,140-$3,314 target zone. This represents the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels. Intermediate resistance levels to watch include $3,028, $3,105, $3,185, $3,208, and $3,247.
Why is the $2,828-$2,925 zone so important?
This zone represents the confluence of multiple technical factors: it’s where the ABC correction found support, it aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels, and it’s the make-or-break point between the bullish five-wave impulse scenario and the bearish corrective channel. Price action in this zone will determine which scenario plays out.
Is Elliott Wave analysis reliable for crypto?
Elliott Wave is a technical analysis methodology based on market psychology and fractal patterns. It’s not guaranteed—no analysis method is. The key is using it with clear invalidation points. This analysis provides probability-based scenarios with specific levels that would prove the count wrong. It works when you respect the rules and manage risk properly.
Should I buy or sell Ethereum right now?
This is technical analysis, not financial advice. The market is at a decision point. The smart approach is to wait for confirmation—either a sustained hold above $2,828 with bullish momentum (bullish signal) or a break below with follow-through (bearish signal). Don’t force trades in decision zones. Let the market show its hand first.
What timeframe is this Ethereum analysis for?
This is a short to medium-term analysis focusing on the next major price swing. The bullish C-wave scenario could play out over days to a few weeks, while the bearish breakdown could extend into the coming weeks or months depending on market conditions and momentum. This is not a long-term investment thesis.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Look, I’m not your financial advisor. This is my technical analysis based on chart patterns and price action. Crypto is volatile. You could lose money. Do your own research. Trade at your own risk. These are educational observations, not investment recommendations.
About the Author
Marcus Chen – Technical Analysis Specialist
I’ve been analyzing crypto markets since 2016, starting with Bitcoin and expanding to altcoins as the space evolved. Elliott Wave Theory is my primary framework because it works—when you understand market psychology and apply it correctly. I focus on high-probability setups and always provide clear invalidation points. This isn’t financial advice, just my technical observations based on years of chart study.